Monthly Archives: August 2014

Almost breakout Aug 22, 2014

New comers to the watch list today for almost up are:

$ELP, $PBR

Also, I found new tickers in the “almost down” list, they are:

$MX, $SPLS

And here are the charts for all those with the usual commentary,

$SPLS is testing the $11 support and tries to go lower for more than 6 months now. If it succeeds, expect the price to go much lower and make a nice profit on some bear vertical spread combination on Jan 2015.

SPLS_Aug22_2014

$MX is testing the $12 support level and I’m less convinced it will penetrate and tank soon. More likely it will bounce again and hover above it for the next couple of months.MX_Aug22_2014

$PBR which had a nice rally up in the past half a year is facing difficulty breaking above the $18 resistance line which was established earlier in November 2013. Looks like there is a double top MACD-H divergence in July and August of 2014 which is happening now. This stock is most likely going down in the next couple of months. There is a profitable trade or two in this situation. Recommended!PBR_Aug22_2014

$ELP has a weaker divergence formation and I’m not conclusive on where it is headed. I will pass on this one for the time being. Lots of other trades in the market. You don’t have to force a prediction when its not easy.ELP_Aug22_2014

Almost Breakout Aug 21, 2014

Since the market moved up there are new comers to the list of stocks which are near the highest price of the recent 52 weeks and might break up soon.

Among them are: $INTC, $VFC, $CNI, $ARW, $ITW, $PBR.

Let me review each chart and tell you how I see it.

$PBR is nearing $18 and in an interesting way. It was near that area before, at the end of 2013 and had a successful double top divergence. It seems like history is repeating itself and while the stock struggles to reach $18, the MACD-H has a lower peak at the same time. If the stock breaks above $18 it will be interesting to see how that level switches to being a support for the prices in the future but most likely it will bounce again and fall to lower prices.

PBR_Aug21_2014

$ITW had a too-good-to-be-true smooth run from $82 to almost $90 in the past month and will not likely continue in the short term. When I say short term, I mean a few days to a few weeks. It will probably go down a few dollars before resuming its impressive up momentum.ITW_Aug21_2014

$ARW is the best candidate, in my opinion to break up soon to new price levels. It defined the $62 level in the beginning of July, tested and confirmed it in mid July and ready to break out above that level. Once it does, it may continue up, depending on volume of trades.ARW_Aug21_2014

$CNI had a long upward run this year and it seems like it is near exhaustion. There is a pronounced MACD-H divergence with a double top formation which is a warning sign that things are about to change direction soon. Although this is not a fool proof sign, it is a strong one and easy to trade by. Volume seems to weaken and this can also mean that the current price level is not sustainable in the foreseeable future.

CNI_Aug21_2014

$VFC is trying to break above the $64 level for more than half a year now and it seems like the price range gets narrower as time goes by. The bottom of the price swings goes up and soon, in a month or two, the price will have no where to go but up. A cheap option combination with nice potential for profit could be buying the at-the-money $65.00 Jan 2015 call option and at the same time selling the out-of-the-money $70.00 Jan 2015 call option for a total cost of $145 for every contract with 100 shares. The worst case is the loss of the entire $145 and the best case is a profit of $355 before commissions. Of course, if the stock moves south or stays below $65 too long, I would suggest selling early and recouping some of the investment for another time or a different stock.
VFC_Aug21_2014

$INTC is a heavy weight stock and its price chart is too jumpy for my taste for such a large volume. I see a double top MACD-H divergence which means the price may go down from here on. Not my cup of tea. Sorry, moving on.INTC_Aug21_2014

The list of stocks near the bottom is getting short and only has these tickers: $BKE,¬†$DO, $SBCF, $ECYT. I will not post images as they haven’t changed much from the previous days.

Yearly price break candidates August 20, 2014

A short list of interesting stocks about to break up or down. This list is prepared daily and contains some stocks that are near their yearly highest or near their yearly lowest price.

Today, Aug 20th – 2014, I found just 3 interesting stocks, $SBCF, $DO, $VFC.

All the charts are weekly 3 year charts, so you get to see the larger picture. Although the price is near the bottom of the yearly range for $SBCF, it is actually in the middle of the range of the 3 year chart. I believe the price will bounce up from here in the coming months, as indicated by the double bottom formation from May until today, where the MACD-H slopes up at the same time. This is the rare and powerful divergence pattern and is a good indication for entering a trade.

SBCF_Aug20_2014


On the other hand, $DO looks like it is going down hard on the 3 year chart. It is interesting to see that it has a stronger double bottom divergence pattern forming from March 2014 until today where price bounced at $43 or $44 and the MACD-H is sloping up at the same time. Again this is a good opportunity to enter a long position or even better open a bull call spread.
DO_Aug20_2014


VFC is trying to break up above a strong resistance at $63 and if / when it succeeds with a meaningful volume to break above that level, it will be an easy stock to profit with some option combinations as bear put spread and bull call spreads.
VFC_Aug20_2014


Always remember to manage your money. Being able to survive another trade is the key to success. If you want to learn more about ways to take advantage of stocks in rare easy situations, join the mailing list at the sidebar.

Have fun!
Ami Heines

Preparing for week of Aug 11, 2014

In preparation for the new week, the “Almost Up” list contains the following single stock ticker, $VFC.
The “Almost Down” list has the following stocks in it, $BKE, $LQDT, $SBCF, $ECYT.

All these stocks are not new and are familiar from the past couple of weeks. I will continue to update here but expect the frequency to be lower as I’m taking my family on vacation for two weeks almost in Italy!

Watch these stocks, new filter for Aug 8th, 2014

Almost Down: $SDT, $BKE, $LQDT, $SBCF, $ECYT, $TFM

These stocks are near their lowest price of the year and if they break below it, they probably fall even lower. Use this knowledge to make a decent profit without risking too much using options strategies.

Almost Up: $VFC

This stock is near its highest price of the year and if it breaks above it, it will probably climb even higher. Use this knowledge to make a decent profit without risking too much using options strategies.

That’s all for today, the charts of these stocks haven’t changed much in the past week so, you can find the posts of the recent days and see the charts there.